Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The mean number of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This information was shared by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is extremely important,” the President remarked, noting that last month the least amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts warned that using homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to properly identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide periods when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.