The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now being felt in India's homes.
As military actions on Iran impede energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.
"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, accounts say up to a 20% of hospitality businesses are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some establishments say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers report a increase in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the officials insists there is adequate supply.
India has more than 30 crore household consumers and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.
Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now effectively closed by the conflict.
The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Commercial stock is being reserved for essential sectors such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been triggered by rumors. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.
According to data from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.
Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Cooking gas supply is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.
An industry representative states price gouging.
"Suppliers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
