Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.
He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.
Voting Day Patterns and Surprises
What was your night?
I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.
Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the first round.
Coalition Building
How did Mamdani gain additional support from?
He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.
He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs
There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?
It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.
Turnout and Impact
A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?
Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.
You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?
Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.
Republican Collapse
The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.
He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.
Progressive Strongholds
Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?
I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.
Community Support
In the lead-up to the election we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?
There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.
Political Impact
Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?
Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.
However I believe that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.
